Papers and presentations 

Berry, M. P. and Jianjun Yu (In production) The Impacts of climate change on the potential natural vegetation of Great Britain.  This paper will present (1) the use of a dynamic ecosystem model, down-scaled to Great Britain to examine the potential future changes in potential natural vegetation (PNV) and what these could mean for the conservation, adaptation and restoration of broad woodland habitat types; and (2) the use of a new set of climate scenarios (from MaRIUS) that explicitly incorporate drought to explore what difference it makes to the changes in PNV when compared with the model run with UKCP09 scenarios.

Bennett, G.L., Roering, J.J., Mackey, B.H., Handwerger, A.L., Schmidt, D.A. and Guillod, B.P. (2016) Historic drought puts the brakes on earthflows in Northern California. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(11): 5725-5731.  DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068378

Borgomeo, E., M. Mortazavi-Naeini, J. W. Hall, M. J. O’Sullivan, and T. Watson (2016) Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems, Water Resources Research, 52, DOI:10.1002/ 2015WR018164

Borgomeo, E. (2018) Will London run out of water? The Conversation  

Borgomeo, E., Mortazavi-Naeini, M., Hall, J. W., & Guillod, B. P. (2018). Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Management Under Uncertainty, Earth’s

Bussi, G., Janes, V., Whitehead, P.G., Dadson, S.J. and Holman, I.P. (2017) Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes. Science of the Total Environment, 590–591, Pages 818–831.  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.069

Bussi, G., Paul G. Whitehead, Michael J. Bowes, Daniel S. Read, Christel Prudhomme, Simon J. Dadson  (2016)  Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames Science of The Total Environment  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109

Bussi G, Dadson S, Prudhomme C., Whitehead P. (2016). Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK). Journal of Hydrology, pp. 357-372 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.010

Bussi, G., Dadson, S.J., Bowes, M.J. and Whitehead, P.G. (2017) Seasonal and interannual changes in sediment transport identified through sediment rating curves. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, Volume 22, Issue 2 DOI 10.1061: 

Bussi,G., P.G. Whitehead, C. Gutiérrez-Cánovas, J.L. Ledesma, S.J. Ormerod, R.-M. Couture. (2018) Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales).Science of the Total Environment. 627C, 733-743. doi: 0.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.295.

Bussi, G., P.G. Whitehead, A.R.C. Thomas, D. Masante, L. Jones, B.J. Cosby, B.A. Emmet, S.K. Malham, C. Prudhomme, H. Prosser. (2017). Climate and land-use change impact on faecal indicator bacteria in the River Conwy (Wales).Journal of Hydrology. 553, 248-261. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.011.

Byers, E., Qadrdan, M., Hall, J., Amezaga, J., Chaudry, M., Kilsby, C., Martino, T. and Alderson, D. (2016) Water use and water availability constraints to decarbonised electricity systems. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Cook, C. (2016) Regulating the Risks of Domestic Greywater Reuse: A Comparison of England and California. Built Environment, Volume 42, Number 2, July 2016, pp. 230-242(13). DOI: 10.2148/benv.42.2.230

Cook, C. (2016) Drought planning as a proxy for water security in England. Current Opinion in Environmental SustainabilityVolume 21, August 2016, Pages 65–69. DOI:

Coxon G, Freer F, Lane R, Musuuza J, Woods R, Wagener T, Howden N  (2017) An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL in natural and human-impacted catchments for low flow simulation. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 19, EGU2017-9261-1, 2017

Crossman J, Whitehead P. (2014). Macronutrient cycles: themed issue. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts, 16 (7), pp. 1548. DOI: 10.1039/C4EM90017K

Dadson, S., Hall, J., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C., Grey, D. and Whittington, D. (2016) Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Dadson, S., Hall, J.W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C., Grey, D. and Whittington, D. (2017) Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model. Water Resources Research53, doi:10.1002/2017WR020640.

Decker, C. (2018) Utility and regulatory decision-making under conditions of uncertainty: Balancing resilience and affordability.  Utilities Policy 51 (2018) 51–60.  DOI 10.1016/j.jup.2018.01.007

Freire-González, J., C Decker and J. W. Hall (2016) ‘The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis’ (2017) 132 Ecological Economics 196  DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.11.005

Freire-González, J., Decker, C.A. and Hall, J.W., 2018. A Linear Programming Approach to Water Allocation during a DroughtWater10(4), p.363

Freire-González, J., Decker, C. A. and Hall, J.W. (2017) A Scenario-Based Framework for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Potential Droughts. Water Economics and Policy, doi: 10.1142/S2382624X17500072

Grecksch, K. (2017) Poster “Floods stay in the head, droughts are easily forgotten” at the European Society for Ecological Economics 2017 Conference, Budapest, Hungary 20th – 23rd June, 2017

Grecksch, K. (2017) “Accepting Decline? – Four scenarios to overcome innovative scarcity in English & Welsh drought and water scarcity management”. Presentation at the Earth System Governance 2017 conference, Lund Sweden.

Grecksch, Kevin. (2018). Scenarios for resilient drought and water scarcity management in England and Wales. International Journal of River Basin Management. doi: 10.1080/15715124.2018.1461106

Grecksch, K. (submitted). Drought and water scarcity management in England and Wales – an assessment of currently applied management options versus internationally available management options.

Grecksch, K; S, Zita. (In prep) Drought and water scarcity and UK businesses and industries. An exploratory study into challenges and opportunities.

Guillod, B. P., Jones, R. G., Dadson, S. J., Coxon, G., Bussi, G., Freer, J., Kay, A. L., Massey, N. R., Sparrow, S. N., Wallom, D. C. H., Allen, M. R., and Hall, J. W. (2018) A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 611–634, doi: 10.5194/hess-22-611-2018

Guillod, B., Massey, N., Otto, F., Allen, M., Jones, R. and Hall, J. (2016) Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Guillod, B., Andy Bowery, Karsten Haustein, Richard G. Jones, Neil R. Massey, Daniel M. Mitchell, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Peter Uhe, David C. H. Wallom, Simon Wilson, and Myles R. Allen (2016) ‘Weather@home2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system’.  Geoscientific Model Developmentdoi:10.5194/gmd-2016-239

Hall, J.W., Grey, D., Garrick, D., Fung, F., Brown, C., Dadson, S.J. and Sadoff, C.W. (2014) Coping with the curse of freshwater variability.Science, 346(6208): 429-430. DOI: 10.1126/science.1257890

Hall, JW, Mortazavi-Naeini M, Borgomeo E, Baker B, Gavin H, Gough M, Harou J, Hunt D, Lambert C, Piper B, Richardson N, Watts G (submitted) Risk-based Water Resources Planning in Practice: A Blueprint for the Water Industry in England. Water and Environment Journal.

Homan, I (2017) Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? Presentation at the ECCA 2017 Conference, 5-9 June 2017 Glasgow, UK.

Homan, I (2017) Adaptation to changing future risk of agricultural irrigation constraints during drought. Presentation at the ECCA 2017 Conference, 5-9 June 2017 Glasgow, UK.

Holman, I (2017) Adaptation pathways – can they achieve stakeholders’ Visions for Europe under high end scenarios? Presentation at the ECCA 2017 Conference, 5-9 June 2017 Glasgow, UK.

Kay, A.L., Bell, V.A., Guillod, B.P, Jones, R.G. and Rudd, A.C. (2018). National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2145-y.

Kingsborough, A., Katie Jenkins, Jim W. Hall (2017) Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London, Climate Risk Management,

Laize, C (2016) Drought impacts on river ecology, 4th BHS International Conference, Cranfield, 30 Aug-1 Sept 2016

Laize, C (2017)  Loss of habitat and connectivity during drought. HydroEco 2017 Conference, “Ecohydrology on the : ecology-hydrology-human interactions in a changing world”. 6th International Multidisciplinary Conference on Hydrology and Ecology University of Birmingham 18-23 June 2017

Landström, C. (2017) Transdisciplinary Environmental Research. A Practical Approach doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-62846-2, ISBN 9783319628455 (9783319628462 online).

Landström, C. (2017) Border troubles: Drought codes stuck in transit. Presentation at the “Travelling Codes” workshop in March 2017 at Leuphana University, Germany.

Lange, B., C Cook, 2015, “Mapping a Developing Governance Space: Managing Drought in the UK”  Current Legal Problems, 2015 DOI: 10.1093/clp/cuv014

Lange, B., Holman, I., Bloomfield, J.P.: 2016. “A framework for a joint hydro-meteorological-social analysis of drought.” Science of the Total Environment  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.145.

Lange, B. 2017 ‘How to think about ‘nature-society’ relationships in environmental law ‘in action’?, in Andreas Philippopoulos-Mihalopoulos and Victoria Brooks (eds.)  Handbook of Research Methods in Environmental Law, Edward Elgar.

Lange, B. (submitted) ‘Choosing drought management options: constituting a governance space’, article (ca. 9000 words), Water International.

Lu, Q., M.N. Futter, L. Nizzetto, G. Bussi, M.D. Jürgens, P.G. Whitehead. 2016. Fate and Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in the River Thames Catchment – Insights from a Coupled Multimedia Fate and Hydrobiogeochemical Transport Model.Science of the Total Environment. 572, 1461-1470. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.029

Lu, Q., P.G. Whitehead, G. Bussi, M.N. Futter, L. Nizzetto. 2016. Modelling metaldehyde in freshwater systems: case study of the River Thames. Environmentacience: Processes & Impacts. doi:10.1039/C6EM00527F.

Musuuza JL, Wagener T, Coxon G, Freer J, Woods R, Howden N, (2017)  Investigating low flow process controls, through complex modelling, in a UK chalk catchmentGeophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 19, EGU2017-13717, 2017

Musuuza JL (In prep)  Physically-based modelling of a chalk catchment to understand process controls on low flows

Massey, N., Allen, M. and Hall, J. (2016) Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Mohammad Mortazavi-Naeini, Gianbattista Bussi, J. Alex Elliott, Jim W. Hall and Paul G. Whitehead (In prep) Assessment of risks to public water supply from low flows and harmful water quality in a changing climate.

Borgomeo, E, Mortazavi‐Naeini, M, Hall, JW, Guillod, BP (2018) Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning under UncertaintyEarth’s Future DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000730

Piniewski, M., C. Prudhomme, M.C. Acreman, L. Tylec, P. Oglęcki, T. Okruszko 2016  Responses of fish and invertebrates to floods and droughts in Europe. Accepted for publication in Ecohydrology.  DOI: 10.1002/eco.1793

Rey D (2016) Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity. Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference

Rey D, I.P. Holman, A. Daccacheb, J. Morris, E.K. Weatherhead, J.W. Knoxa (2016) Modelling and mapping the economic value of supplemental irrigation in a humid climate Agricultural Water Management 173 (2016) 13–22 Doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2016.04.017

Rey D, Holman I. and Knox J. (2017) Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity. Regional Environmental Change, DOI 10.1007/s10113-017-1116-6

Rey D, Holman I, Rio M, and Prudhomme C (2017) Impacts of climate change on abstraction reliability for irrigation during droughts – Policy implications for England. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 19, EGU 2017-16658, 2017 EGU General Assembly 2017

Richard Williams, Colin Neal, Helen Jarvie, Andrew Johnson, Paul Whitehead, Mike Bowes, and Alan Jenkins 2015 Water Quality, in Progress in Modern Hydrology: Past, Present and Future, First Edition. Edited by John C. Rodda and Mark Robinson. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI: 10.1002/9781119074304.ch8

Rio M., Rey D., Prudhomme C., Holman I. (In prep) Evaluation  of  changing  water  abstraction  reliability  for  supplemental  irrigation  under  climate  change.

Rudd, A.C., Bell, V.A. and Kay, A.L. (2017) National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891-2015). Journal of Hydrology. Vol 550, P368-385, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.018

Safavi, H.R., Raghibi, V., Mazdiyasni, O. and Mortazavi-Naeini, M. (2017) A new hybrid drought-monitoring framework based on nonparametric standardized indicators. Hydrology Research, 48(1).  DOI: 10.2166/nh.2017.266

Sarmiento, E., Landström, C., Whatmore, S (submitted) Biopolitics, discipline, and hydro-citizenship: Drought management and water governance in England.  Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers

Yu, J, Pam Berry, Benoit Guillod, Thomas Hickler  (In production) Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Drought Vulnerability of Tree Species in Great Britain”  This paper will present the results from applying the tree-species based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS in Britain at a 5 km resolution. The developed model was projected to late 21st century under 100 regional climate model outputs driven by boundary conditions from HadAm3P under an RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The climate change impacts were analysed in terms of the change of leaf area index (LAI) and net primary productivity (NPP) were analysed by comparing the simulated future conditions (i.e. the 2030s and the 2080s) to that of baseline (i.e. 1975-2004). A drought vulnerability index was developed to assess the potential drought impact on modelled tree species.

Yu J, Berry P. (2017)  Potential Effects of Drought on Tree Dieback in Great Britain and Implications for Forest Management in Adaptation to Climate ChangeGeophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 19, EGU2017-12431, 2017

Van Loon Anne F., Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen, (2016). Drought in a human-modified world: Reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(9), 3631-3650. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016

Van Loon Anne F., Tom Gleeson, Julian Clark, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Kerstin Stahl, Jamie Hannaford, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Adriaan J. Teuling, Lena M. Tallaksen, Remko Uijlenhoet, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders & Henny A. J. Van Lanen (2016) Drought in the Anthropocene  Nature Geoscience 9, 89–91 DOI:10.1038/ngeo2646

Westerberg, I. K., Wagener, T., Coxon, G., McMillan, H. K., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A. and Freer, J. (2016), Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments. Water Resources Research, DOI:10.1002/2015WR017635

Whitehead, P.G.,  H. Leckie, K. Rankinen, D. Butterfield, M.N. Futter, G. Bussi, (2016) “An INCA model for pathogens in rivers and catchments: Model structure, sensitivity analysis and application to the River Thames catchment, UK” Science of The Total Environment.  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.128

Whitehead, P.G., Gianbattista Bussi, Michael J. Bowes, Daniel S. Read, Michael G. Hutchins, J. Alex Elliott, Simon J. Dadson, (2015) “Dynamic modelling of multiple phytoplankton groups in rivers with an application to the Thames river system in the UK“ Environmental Modelling & Software Volume 74, pp. 75–91 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.010

Whitehead P, Jin L, Crossman J, Comber S, Johnes P, Daldorph P, Willows R. (2014). Distributed and dynamic modelling of hydrology, phosphorus and ecology in the Hampshire Avon and Blashford Lakes: Evaluating alternative strategies to meet WFD standards. Science of The Total Environment, pp. 157-166. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.007

Whitehead P.G., Gianbattista Bussi, Michael Bowes, Daniel Read, Simon Dadson, Alex Elliot (2014) Dynamic modelling of five phytoplankton species in river systems: Model equations, sensitivity analysis and Thames Reach Application, Science of the Total Environment, 74.75-91, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.010.

Whitehead P.G., (2016) Water Quality Modelling, Wiley Statistics John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI:10.1002/9781118445112.stat07793.pub2

Whitehead, P.G, Crossman, J. et al. (2013) A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 371(2002), 20120413 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0413

Williams, R., Neal, C., Jarvie, H., Johnson, A., Whitehead, P., Bowes, M. and Jenkins, A. (2015) Water quality. Chap. 8 in, Rodda, J.C. and Robinson, M. (eds.) Progress in Modern Hydrology: Past, Present and Future. Wiley-Blackwell. pp. 240-266. ISBN: 978-1-119-07427-4.


The River Kennet ECG (2017) “Active Water Resilience: Incorporating local knowledge in water management of the River Kennet catchment”.  Report of the 2015-16 River Kennet Environmental Competency Group. Published by ECI, ISBN: 978-1-874370-66-6

Cook, C. with contributions from: Gavin, H., Berry, P., Guillod, B., Lange, B., Rey Vicario, D. and Whitehead, P. (2017). Drought planning in England: a primer. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK. ISBN 978-1-874370-67-3

Grecksch, K. (2017) Resilient drought and water scarcity management in England and Wales in 2065. Scenario Workshop Documentation. Oxford: Centre for Socio-Legal Studies.

Consultation Responses

Dr. Bettina Lange, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford (Dec 2014) Response to consultation about SEPA’s National Water Scarcity Plan, Dec. 2014

Dr. Bettina Lange, Dr. Christina Cook, Dr. Kevin Grecksch and Dr. Christopher Decker, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford (Jan 2017) Response to UK Waterwise consultation on ‘A Water Efficiency Strategy for the UK’ – November 2016

Dr. Bettina Lange (Aug 2015) Response to Environment Agency Consultation on ‘Water Company Drought Plan Guidance

Working Files

Outputs will be listed here when they become available.


Introduction to Environmental Competency Groups (ECGs) for the MaRIUS project: A Follow-up to ECG Simulation Event held at project start-up meeting in Oxford 19 May 2014, Catharina Landström, University of Oxford.

Click on the image to the left to download the outcomes of the 2014 May workshop group exercise in Competency Groups.

Contact: Catharina Landström:


Knowledge Network Visualisations

Click on the image to the left to see an early output of the research in Work Task A1: Knowledge controversies in water scarcity.  The diagram shows the formal ties between the MaRIUS research teams, stakeholders and other research projects, and maps the involvement of stakeholders across the multiple projects in the NERC UK Drought and Water Scarcity programme.

Contact: Catharina Landstrom: